Will Humanity Reach a Time When There Will Be No More Technological Advancement?

Technology has accelerated steadily over millennia. The continually increasing progress will soon be directed by AI. Accelerating causes deceleration and population growth illustrate this process. Heinz von Foerster showed in 1960 that world population growth was hyperbolic. Since the 1970s, growth has slowed, and the UN expects this trend to continue for decades.

Statistically and empirically, a singularity happened in 2018, and we live in a decelerating world. Another wave of acceleration is expected around 2030, with the singularity arriving in 2022 (give or take 20-30 years). In the 21st century, technological advancement will alter.

What’s your forecast’s basis?

Historical patterns can foretell transitions. We use the idea of production’s long, comprehensive cycles to achieve breakthroughs and important technological advances.

• Human history includes hunter-gatherers, agricultural trade, commercial-industrial, and cyber cycles. Acceleration has shortened each cycle.
• The hunter-gatherer period lasted 30,000 years, the agrarian-trade 9,400, the commercial-industrial 525, and the cyber endured 135-160 years.
• Each cycle contains six similar stages whose sequence and duration remain unchanged even as manufacturing methods change.
• Using constant ratios, you may compute the dynamics of technology advancement since 40,000 BC and anticipate its future stages.

Where are we?

Since the mid-1990s, the cyber revolution has entered its second phase. In the 1950s, the fast growth of ICT, energy production, automation, space exploration, and scientific production management systems laid the ground for the present technological and economic revolution. In the third phase, about 2030, “smart” automated systems may be introduced. 

It will be driven by the convergence of medicine (M), adaptive technologies (A), nanotechnology (N), biotechnology (B), robotics (R), IT (I), and cognitive technologies (C) (C). In the fourth phase, which begins in 2055, automated systems will rapidly improve and spread worldwide, attaining highly developed forms and a key role in the new manufacturing process.

Medicine will lead this change. Population aging will stimulate technological innovation. The population of persons over 80 will expand by 100 between 1950 and 2050, increasing health care expenses. This will encourage innovation and commercialization.

Why is this massive expansion only a wave before a slowdown?

The 2030s shouldn’t see faster growth than the 1950s and 1960s. Transport, electricity, the chemical industry, molecular biology, etc., saw discoveries. That led to the 1980s personal computer boom.

Similar growth seems unlikely. Only a few isolated locations will accelerate.

In artificial intelligence, scientists foresee breakthroughs in just two or three of 12 industries, while progress slows in the rest.

By the end of the 20th century, the number of breakthroughs had slowed. Many patents are awarded for non-inventions, according to statistics. Since the 1950s-1960s, fewer major patents have been issued.

Is humanity wasting its potential?

This has deep roots. The assumption that technology increases exponentially persists because the cosmos was formerly thought to have no time or space limits. Despite being endless, the universe has a beginning and a finite amount of stuff. Protons, neutrons, and electrons have been counted and examining their structure to find new elemental particles proved futile. Because of this, discoveries are restricted.

In the 1920s and 1930s, basic physics discoveries flourished. The 1950s-1960s saw commercialization and economic benefits, but the situation grew bleaker over time.

The 22nd and 23rd centuries will see fewer discoveries than the 21st. World-changing innovations and decades-long technical advances will continue. The 2030s will be more productive than the 2010s, but the trend will moderate.

We should expect weaker economic growth and not assume it’s transitory. Since the 1970s, industrialized nations have experienced a negative dynamic, a dire situation. The 2030s technological boom will boost the global economy, but it won’t match the 2000s or mid-20th-century peak.

Could “black swans” like the coronavirus and the economic crisis change your predictions?

The coronavirus pandemic makes sense. Imagine a quake. Los Angeles is a seismically active zone, and thus structures must be strong and stable. Nobody can predict aftershocks like epidemics; the model predicts they will happen but can’t determine when or how strongly. Global economic devastation is also expected. Since the 19th century, we’ve known that an economic cycle lasts seven to 11 years. Due to the 2008 and 2014 crises, a third was expected in 2020. The world economy was preparing for a slump regardless of the coronavirus.

The pandemic’s singular point

The pandemic will never become permanent, and it’ll end. In the 2060s and 2070s, adaptability will reduce the impact. There’s no reason to forecast large fatality rates from illness waves because anti-disease technology is advancing.

Do cataclysms spur faster technological development due to discoveries that wouldn’t happen otherwise?

Yes, but not over a century. This might cause ripples, and discoveries or cataclysms speed up the wave’s arrival.

An asteroid strike 60 million years ago wiped out many species, while the Black Plague in Europe in the 14th century killed a third of the population. Neither catastrophe stands out as more than a momentary drop before the main trend resumes. The movement doesn’t alter despite significant fluctuations.

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